People tend to be very bad about accurately assessing risk. Most people tend to be very far off the mark in what they identify as "dangerous" and what they believe to be safe. While this well-documented mental idiosyncracy makes public safety professionals tear their hair out with frustration at the best of times, it's an especially problematical quirk when a pandemic is raging.

It may have been overkill to close the schools down in March; at least Governor Baker thinks so, and has said so repeatedly. It may have been going too far, or pointless, to crash the economy by closing down so many businesses. But it's difficult to see what alternative state and local officials had when the most effective measures of all against the spread of a disease depend on individuals' sense of personal responsibility and obligation to other people and the common good--all of which vast numbers of Americans seem blissfully unencumbered by.

Just imagine if everyone had uncomplainingly and immediately started wearing masks everywhere in the presence of other people, including at home, all of the time, the minute that this started, without any exceptions or cheating. People who actually developed symptoms would have quarantined for two weeks. At the same time, life (school, work, business, events) more or less went on as usual. There is reason to believe that the virus would never have raged out of control at all, just from doing these simple things.

But it was too much to ask for many Americans, who falsely equate "not giving a damn about anyone else" with "freedom."

It's a rare person who can think rationally about disease, in any event. We assume we'll "catch something" from strangers who have other qualities that make us uncomfortable. There are people who imagine that they'll get AIDS from sitting next to a gay person on the subway. Being the huge blamers and finger-pointers that we are, Americans always assume that bad things come from "the other." Liberals complain about unmasked Trump supporters spreading COVID. (They don't seem to be.) Old folks are suspicious of noisy, not-socially-distancing kids. (Kids hardly ever pass on COVID to someone else.) White people think Black Lives Matter protests are to blame for the spread. (No COVID surges are associated with any BLM protests, at which virtually everyone wears masks.)

But for weeks now, evidence has been growing that indicates COVID isn't being spread in classrooms, stores, protest marches or anywhere that people wear masks and keep their distance.

It's being spread at home. As Pogo once said, "we have met the enemy and he is us."

Karin Brulliard wrote in The Washington Post on November 12, "A record-breaking surge in U.S. coronavirus cases is being driven to a significant degree by casual occasions that may feel deceptively safe, officials and scientists warn--dinner parties, game nights, sleepovers and carpools." With so many public venues like restaurants, clubs, parks, and theatres shut down, Americans are gathering in private homes to a degree not seen for decades. They aren't doing all that baking and cooking just for themselves. Home entertainment is back in vogue.

I constantly see houses in Winchendon with a dozen cars parked out in front and a happy party going on, no one wearing masks, because they feel safe. These are friends and family, no one is sick, we all know each other. People who wouldn't dream of going to Market Basket without a mask, people who think a yard sale is certain death, will still have dinner at a friend's house or throw a football-watching party. Parents desperate to keep kids and teens occupied but "safe" host game nights, Netflix marathons and sleepovers.

And COVID is exploding in Massachusetts and all over the country.

Right from the start, there were people--not deniers or anti-mask fanatics, but perfectly reasonable people--who said, "we're just trying to slow down the virus so our hospitals won't be overwhelmed. We're all going to get this. And most of us will be okay." It looks like they were right, not because COVID is, like a Marvel supervillain, inevitable, but because people just can't see danger where it really exists.

Of course wearing a mask all the time is a royal pain. I'm sick of it myself. I realized just yesterday, as I sat at my computer all alone in my home office, that it felt weird not to be wearing my face mask. But wearing a mask is harmless. It costs you nothing. And just think of all the good karma, brownie points, tickets to heaven, and general improvements to your character you get from Doing The Right Thing even though it's annoying.

At some point, vaccine or no vaccine, the pandemic will have to burn itself out because so many people will have had it and recovered or died. We can hope for an effective vaccine, and then we can hope enough people will be vaccinated, since many people are even less rational about the risks of vaccines (practically none) than about the risks of COVID.

In the meantime, I fantasize often about clear thinking and rationality "going viral." If only there was a super-spreader mechanism for that.

Inanna Arthen